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Author Topic:   Stock Tips
cstengel3
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Posts: 1078
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posted December 03, 2002 01:40 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for cstengel3     Edit/Delete Message
Thought this might make an interesting thread.

I HATE the idea of giving anybody a tip myself as I really don't feel like I've got the expertise to do so and don't like the pressure of knowing other people might be doing something with their hard earned money based on my opinions when even I can't be sure of the outcome. So just call this one a "heads up" on the chance anybody is interested:

Got in Cryolife (CRY) at $2.16 a short while back and have had a great run (the best current holding in our portfolio). Had a few GREAT days recently (up 16% today even though the rest of the market is red and that's on top of similar runs the days prior).

Have a feeling this one is far from played out and that, given the recent runs, there might be some profit taking tomorrow (but not sure) that might allow entry in at a slightly better point. (Although even at these levels it seems a steal IMO.)

Again, not a suggestion - just a heads up. Make sure to do your own DD. And not bragging or anything like that (we've had plenty of losers). While I worry about giving others "tips", etc., given it's recent run I've finally got the confidence in this one that if I DON'T mention it as a headsup I'll feel negligent should it really run.

Anybody else got "tips"?

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jollyjoe
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From:Los Angeles
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posted December 03, 2002 04:19 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for jollyjoe   Click Here to Email jollyjoe     Edit/Delete Message
What exactly does Cryolife do? If it's about freezing bodies in a chamber until a cure is found, I will pass on that.

My tip is Wal-Mart and hold it until you're ready to retire.

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cstengel3
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posted December 03, 2002 05:19 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for cstengel3     Edit/Delete Message
Nah, it's not really cryogenics (at least not in the sense of preserving entire humans to be reawakend later). In short, CRY deals in storing/supplying/etc. donor organ tissues as well as selling a product called Bioglue that's basically used as, well, GLUE in medical procedures.

The company's price was battered recently (months ago) when, after a few allegedly 'contaminated' specimens resulted (it is claimed) in a couple of illnesses and deaths, the FDA came down hard on the company and suspended/limited a lot of their operations pending some changes in the way the tissue is handled.

The stock lost the bulk of its value following that, but as time has moved forward all signs have pointed toward them (CRY and the FDA) working out their issues and it looks as if the FDA may give the nod to resume normal operations any day now (which seems to be one of the causes for the recent run). Looks as though everybody views them as a company supplying a worthwhile/important product and that the FDA, for all the force it came down with, isn't interested in trying to drive a company like that out of business.

Sad about the deaths (and I'm not downplaying that), but it seems that there's only so much you can do to clean donor tissue without destroying it's effectiveness (i.e. you can put the stuff in your oven to burn away all the germs, but you're not going to be left with a useful piece of tissue at that point). Given that, some of the things that happened may have been expected (in some statistical sense). Also, some of these deaths (remember, these are people already ill in need of tranplants, etc.) may have been as much based on the original illness, hospital procedures, etc., as anything else. Plus, it seems as though CRY had a bit of a contentious relationship with the FDA prior which might have lead to them coming down a bit harder on them than they should have.

In the end it appears that things are probably being worked out. The FDA has granted 2 extensions on their operations in the interim until the they could do a full inspection of the facilities and the changes (the FDA being the culprit for the holdup). They've also, along the way, allowed the resumption of more of their operations, etc. All of that seemed to point to things moving in a positive direction.

Now rumor has it that the FDA were recently visiting the facilities followed by a lot of "back slapping", etc., which itself was followed by a move upward in the price (which some have interpreted as inside buying of some sort). Who can say?

Again, my bit up above is just a general (non-technical) description of the situation. If you're interested you might want to check out news elsewhere, CRY discussion boards, etc. I'm no expert in finances, let alone in this field so if you're interested make sure you check out some of those other things.

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indiedan
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From:Santa Monica
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posted December 03, 2002 07:05 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for indiedan   Click Here to Email indiedan     Edit/Delete Message
I bought Amazon at $11 and I think it's still a bargain at $23. They will show excellent holiday numbers. Also, wait until after the first of the year and look hard at MGM. They are primed for an acquisition.

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cstengel3
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posted December 04, 2002 10:17 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for cstengel3     Edit/Delete Message
Looks like I was right with my prediction about the profit taking (unfortunately) - down over a buck at one point today. Also doesn't help that the market is down in general today.

Oh well, I hope if any of you WERE interested you managed to get in on this morning's dip (and I hope it's nothing but UP from this point).

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WallStreetJohnny
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From:The Street
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posted December 10, 2002 11:15 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for WallStreetJohnny   Click Here to Email WallStreetJohnny     Edit/Delete Message
I would look at discount retailers - Best Buy, Wal Mart but not Amazon. I think they are due for a wake up call and people will pull back from online shopping. The mindset in America is that online shopping is a luxury thing. Don't need to be delivered when they can just go out and get it themselves and (perceivably) get it cheaper. It's a minset thing.

I would also look in gaming companies. THQ, Sony, Activision... after the first of the year they will be reporting record profits. Interactive gaming is huge right now and it's time to jump on the bandwagon.

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cstengel3
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posted December 27, 2002 05:50 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for cstengel3     Edit/Delete Message
Man, CRY had a rough ride a few days back. Was tough to see that kind of loss and hold on (but I did it anyway). Glad to see it turned back around. Whew.

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jpgordo
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From:Studio City, CA
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posted January 01, 2003 10:22 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for jpgordo   Click Here to Email jpgordo     Edit/Delete Message
I hope you're right. I bought 1,000 share of CRY at 5.50.

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mollyglover
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From:North Hollywood, CA, USA
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posted January 11, 2003 01:05 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for mollyglover   Click Here to Email mollyglover     Edit/Delete Message
I own about 50 shares of Coca-Cola that my dad gave me. I don't even know if they've made money or not. But I might have to sell so I can get a new car.

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cstengel3
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posted January 12, 2003 02:45 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for cstengel3     Edit/Delete Message
Did you really buy some CRY? The moment of truth is coming up. Well...at least A moment of truth is coming up. The current FDA extension is due to expire any day now and this thing is going to move one way or the other based upon whether they are granted the right to resume operations as usual, simply granted another extension, or maybe something worse. I'm beginning to think at this point all we might see is another extension which my hurt the price a little bit in the short term. Sold a third of my holding. If it drops a bit I probably buy back into to gain more shares. If there's GOOD news and it doesn't drop I'll probably buy back in for a lesser number of shares to get whatever ride I can out of it.

Also been holding DYN. It had a great day a few days back. Didn't choose my entry point too well, however (about $1.30) and had been holding it awhile waiting for a turnaround. Really spiked up after a conference call a couple days ago although it's dropped back down a tiny bit as some analysts are still forecasting gloom and doom.

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cstengel3
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posted January 13, 2003 06:59 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for cstengel3     Edit/Delete Message
If you really did buy any CRY, check out the news today as soon as possible. They got an FDA extension - which isn't a horrible thing (in my opinion) but it's definitely going to hurt the short term price and you may want to get out and back in. Up to you. I'm using the cash from that third I sold to try and lowball a reentry with a few more shares. Again, not horrible news but not the great news CRY holders were hoping for.

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cstengel3
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posted January 24, 2003 04:08 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for cstengel3     Edit/Delete Message
Sold a bit more a week or so ago and got lucky buying in on the dip yesterday (just about at the low). Got to avoid some of that misery of the past couple weeks and finish with more shares than I started with. Whew!

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fred
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From:Redmond, WA
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posted January 28, 2003 11:26 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for fred   Click Here to Email fred     Edit/Delete Message
So is the success of this CRY stock dependant on casualties in war? I've read some message boards and people seem to be excited about how the product would flourish if the war expands and more soldiers need CRY's products.

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cstengel3
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posted January 29, 2003 12:54 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for cstengel3     Edit/Delete Message
No, I don't think so. I've seen the same things posted that you have (about war being helpful). I think that's just longs who are trying to reassure investors that CRY is somehow more immune to the whole Iraq thing than it really is stretching the truth for their own benefit. I'm not sure what kind of deals CRY's actually got going on with the military, but I don't think they're currently significant enought to say a war in Iraq could somehow be construed as a very positive thing (in terms of CRY's bottom line).

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NEWSFLASH
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From:Hollywood, CA
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posted January 30, 2003 09:26 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for NEWSFLASH   Click Here to Email NEWSFLASH     Edit/Delete Message
From Forbes.com - top 10 stocks under $5.
http://www.forbes.com/home/2003/01/29/cz_tm_0129sf.html?partner=aol

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